20 Posts from April 2011
- Apr 29, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: aging, health, human accomplishment
The debate over the sustainability of public health care has often focused on an aging population as one of the key drivers with apocalyptic scenarios of a silver tsunami of sick seniors washing over the health care system and bankrupting it. While health spending does rise with age, most academic studies have found that the determinants of spending are somewhat more complex with technological extension, inflation, and income growth being collectively more important drivers than age alone. However, aside from aging being a cost driver, it should also be viewed as a major human accomplishment. One of the remarkable achievements of the human species over the last 150 years has been the extension of the lifespan. Visit my latest post on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative for a discussion.
- Apr 28, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: federal election 2011, politics, twitter counts
Well, here we are with just four days to go until the Federal election so its time to go forward with one final Twitter follower update for the two Thunder Bay ridings as well as an update for the federal party leaders. Overall, the relative positions have been remarkably stable over the past month. For Thunder Bay Superior North (TBSN) Bruce Hyer (NDP) remains in the lead with 442 Twitter followers, up 4.2 percent since April 15th. Yves Fricot (LIB) is in second place with 188 followers, up 22.1 percent since April 15th. Unfortunately, neither Richard Harvey (C) nor Scott Kyle (G) had a Twitter account and remain at zero. For the Thunder Bay Rainy River riding (TBRR), John Rafferty(NDP) remains in the lead with 1184 followers, up 3.4 percent from April 15th. Meanwhile, Ken Boshcoff(LIB) is in second place with 174 followers, up 10.1 percent since April 28th. Ed Shields(G) is in third place with 242 followers but up 68 percent since April 15th while Moe Comuzzi-Stehmann(C) is in last place with 38 followers, up 35.7 percent since April 15th. Graphs comparing the distribution of votes from March 30th to April 28th are also provided below.
Table 1
TBSN
|
30-Mar
|
15-Apr
|
28-Apr
|
% Change Apr15-28
|
Hyer
|
385
|
424
|
442
|
4.2
|
Fricot
|
66
|
154
|
188
|
22.1
|
Harvey
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0.0
|
Kyle
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0.0
|
TBRR
|
30-Mar
|
15-Apr
|
28-Apr
|
% Change Apr15-28
|
Rafferty
|
1089
|
1145
|
1184
|
3.4
|
Boshcoff
|
137
|
158
|
174
|
10.1
|
Comuzzi-Stehmann
|
0
|
28
|
38
|
35.7
|
Shields
|
59
|
144
|
242
|
68.1
|
Figure 1
Figure 2
Does this really tell us anything about how the election might shape up locally on May 2nd? Based on the overall number of Twitter followers, it would appear that the NDP are poised to take the two ridings again. However, the final outcome may be closer and more uncertain than anyone expects because Twitter is not a random poll but a summation of people who are probably committed to the candidate – why else would they be a follower? People who choose to register as followers are likely already supporters and all the Twitter count probably is in the end is an estimate of core support. How those who have not registered on Twitter are going to vote is more problematic and based on casual observation of the “sign wars” the race in both ridings appears to be a lot closer than the Twitter index would indicate. As well, given that the age distribution in Thunder Bay reflects a older population age distribution, Twitter counts are likely to inflate the influence of the younger demographic. Younger voters and supporters are more likely to be on Twitter and national evidence suggests that support for the Greens and the NDP is stronger in the younger demographic. In addition, the share of Twitter followers of both the incumbents did decline as the election progressed though they still dominated.
These features of Twitter followers are also likely an aspect of the distribution of followers among the federal leaders where the overall distribution has changed only a little since I began tracking them on April 5th. There seems to have been a small drop in support for the Conservatives and an increase for the Greens and the NDP but there has not been a dramatic shift. Again, Twitter followers are committed enough to follow and so what is being picked up is likely a core vote. The relative ranking of the main parties as currently reflected in the polls does not match the Twitter distribution – there has not been a collapse in Liberal Twitter followers akin to what has happened in the polls. This suggests that the core support for the Liberals may be more solid than the polls indicate and provided they get their core vote out they may do better than expected on May 2nd.
Neverthless, the Twitter count for the federal leaders points to a Conservative minority and the national polls also point that way with an NDP official opposition. What is interesting is the high turnout at advance polls over the Easter weekend. Generally speaking, large numbers of people rarely turn out to vote for something, they turn out to vote against something. The question is what are the voters voting against? Is it another minority government - which would favour the Conservatives - or are they voting against a Conservative majority? Ultimately, the mind of the electorate is a mystery that will not be revealed until the polls close. Election day will be fascinating, in Thunder Bay as well as across the country.
Figure 3
- Apr 27, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: economy, employment, ontario, recovery, thunder bay
There has been some debate recently over whether or not Ontario’s employment has recovered from the recession with the provincial Finance Minister Dwight Duncan stating that 93 percent of jobs lost during the recession have been recovered. Has employment recovered? Well, an examination of recent Statistics Canada numbers suggests that the answer depends on how you look at the numbers. Figure 1 plots the 3-month moving average of monthly Ontario employment (not seasonally adjusted) for the period of January 2005 to March 2011 and while it shows that employment has started to recover from the drop that occurred during the recession it has not moved much beyond the peak reached in 2008. If one compares the precession peak of August 2008 (employment of 6,761,200) with the post-recession peak of August 2010 (employment of 6,731,700), then employment post recession is still about 29,500 jobs below where it was going into the recession. However, as the Finance Minister has argued, most of the jobs have been recovered.
However, if one looks only at the most recent numbers – March of each year going back to 2005 – as depicted in Figure 2, then these numbers suggest that Ontario has actually begun to move beyond its pre-recession employment levels and that the recovery has finally started to gain some solid ground. However, the same figures provided for Thunder Bay (Figures 3 and 4) suggest that while Thunder Bay has bottomed out in terms of employment losses, the recovery has much distance to go. As an added point, Figures 5 and 6 plot the March numbers for Ontario full-time and part-time employment and reveal that while both full-time and part-time employment has grown since the recession, part-time employment grew at a steady pace even during the recession. Full-time employment has only begun to reach where it was before the recession while part-time employment is substantially above where it was in 2008.
- Apr 26, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: canada, national highway, northwestern ontario, trans-canada highway
This originally appeared in the Financial Post Comment.
Special to Financial Post Apr 26, 2011
By Livio Di Matteo and Wayne Simpson
The federal election has highlighted the need for transportation infrastructure in Canada’s Far North with the recent federal budget’s announcement of $150-million for an Arctic highway between Inuvik and Tuktoyaktuk. While the goal of a national highway system from sea to sea to sea can be seen as an important nation-building goal, the fact remains that the east-west Trans-Canada Highway system is still inadequate despite its crucial role as a national transportation artery. While much of Highway 1, as it is known in much of Canada, is four lanes, it is still deficient in parts of Eastern and Western Canada. Moreover, even what is four lanes is still a far cry from a world-class highway system, as exists in the U.S. Interstate system or the European autobahns.
Canada is the largest developed country in the world without a system of fully grade-separated roadways that allow uninterrupted traffic flow between its major urban centres. The key roadblocks include the two-lane stretches from the Manitoba border to Sudbury and much of the route between the Alberta border and Kamloops. Most importantly, the Trans-Canada is still a two-lane stretch through the vital zone of transit through northwestern Ontario connecting the East with the West from the Manitoba border to Sudbury, leaving the nation’s east-west flow of personal and commercial traffic subject to the whims of an errant moose. The slow travel times and disruptions make cutting through the United States an attractive option for east-west travellers, despite the absence of an Interstate route along the border, but U.S. border-crossing formalities have also made this more difficult and time-consuming.
Canada pays a price for this sub-standard system in the form of higher transportation costs due to longer travel times, increased traffic deaths, reduced tourism opportunities and a diminished sense of national security, given the reduced possibility of rapidly moving assistance from one part of the country to another in times of national distress. The safety aspect alone is important, as it has been estimated that in its first 40 years, the U.S. Interstate Highway System reduced traffic fatalities by 187,000 deaths. Are American lives worth so much more than our own that we cannot invest in the safety of our roadways? Moreover, careful analyses have found that U.S. Interstate highway investments have consistently reduced production and distribution costs and raised productivity across the industrial spectrum, yielding large returns to society.
In a recent policy paper for the Frontier Center for Public Policy, Wendell Cox makes the case for a Canadian autobahn system that would upgrade the entire transcontinental route from Halifax through Toronto to Vancouver to motorway standard at a cost of about $28-billion. This constitutes a hefty investment that would have to compete for scarce public funds. At present, however, there is no such competition for funds because there appears to be no recognition in Ottawa of the potential value of the national highway project.
While road transportation is a provincial responsibility, establishing and maintaining a national system of highways definitely has an important nation-building federal role. Yet the national highway system has no prominence on the Infrastructure Canada website and there is no discussion of its potential merits and costs between or during elections. What was the contribution of the soon-to-be-completed Canada Action Plan to improvement of the national highway system? Were strategic components of national highway expansion even considered?
Despite the substantial price tag, development of a true national highway represents a very small fraction of our current GDP and the economic impacts of the project would be substantial both in the short and long runs. Although some might argue that the time for investment in highways has passed because of environmental concerns, we see little indication that motor vehicle transportation is losing steam as cars and trucks become more fuel efficient and environmentally friendly. As for financing, we already collect substantial gasoline taxes in this country and dedicating a portion of those to upgrading the highway system rather than general revenues makes more sense.
Livio Di Matteo is professor of economics at Lakehead University. Wayne Simpson is professor of economics at the University of Manitoba.
Special to Financial Post Apr 26, 2011
By Livio Di Matteo and Wayne Simpson
The federal election has highlighted the need for transportation infrastructure in Canada’s Far North with the recent federal budget’s announcement of $150-million for an Arctic highway between Inuvik and Tuktoyaktuk. While the goal of a national highway system from sea to sea to sea can be seen as an important nation-building goal, the fact remains that the east-west Trans-Canada Highway system is still inadequate despite its crucial role as a national transportation artery. While much of Highway 1, as it is known in much of Canada, is four lanes, it is still deficient in parts of Eastern and Western Canada. Moreover, even what is four lanes is still a far cry from a world-class highway system, as exists in the U.S. Interstate system or the European autobahns.
Canada is the largest developed country in the world without a system of fully grade-separated roadways that allow uninterrupted traffic flow between its major urban centres. The key roadblocks include the two-lane stretches from the Manitoba border to Sudbury and much of the route between the Alberta border and Kamloops. Most importantly, the Trans-Canada is still a two-lane stretch through the vital zone of transit through northwestern Ontario connecting the East with the West from the Manitoba border to Sudbury, leaving the nation’s east-west flow of personal and commercial traffic subject to the whims of an errant moose. The slow travel times and disruptions make cutting through the United States an attractive option for east-west travellers, despite the absence of an Interstate route along the border, but U.S. border-crossing formalities have also made this more difficult and time-consuming.
Canada pays a price for this sub-standard system in the form of higher transportation costs due to longer travel times, increased traffic deaths, reduced tourism opportunities and a diminished sense of national security, given the reduced possibility of rapidly moving assistance from one part of the country to another in times of national distress. The safety aspect alone is important, as it has been estimated that in its first 40 years, the U.S. Interstate Highway System reduced traffic fatalities by 187,000 deaths. Are American lives worth so much more than our own that we cannot invest in the safety of our roadways? Moreover, careful analyses have found that U.S. Interstate highway investments have consistently reduced production and distribution costs and raised productivity across the industrial spectrum, yielding large returns to society.
In a recent policy paper for the Frontier Center for Public Policy, Wendell Cox makes the case for a Canadian autobahn system that would upgrade the entire transcontinental route from Halifax through Toronto to Vancouver to motorway standard at a cost of about $28-billion. This constitutes a hefty investment that would have to compete for scarce public funds. At present, however, there is no such competition for funds because there appears to be no recognition in Ottawa of the potential value of the national highway project.
While road transportation is a provincial responsibility, establishing and maintaining a national system of highways definitely has an important nation-building federal role. Yet the national highway system has no prominence on the Infrastructure Canada website and there is no discussion of its potential merits and costs between or during elections. What was the contribution of the soon-to-be-completed Canada Action Plan to improvement of the national highway system? Were strategic components of national highway expansion even considered?
Despite the substantial price tag, development of a true national highway represents a very small fraction of our current GDP and the economic impacts of the project would be substantial both in the short and long runs. Although some might argue that the time for investment in highways has passed because of environmental concerns, we see little indication that motor vehicle transportation is losing steam as cars and trucks become more fuel efficient and environmentally friendly. As for financing, we already collect substantial gasoline taxes in this country and dedicating a portion of those to upgrading the highway system rather than general revenues makes more sense.
Livio Di Matteo is professor of economics at Lakehead University. Wayne Simpson is professor of economics at the University of Manitoba.
- Apr 25, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: debt, deficit, fiscal policy, gasoline tax, sales tax, united states
The current debate in the United States over their budget deficit and debt does not appear to be generating solutions that will solve their problem anytime soon. According to the Congressional Budget Office’s analysis of President Obama’s budget proposals, the deficit under the President’s proposals would at first fall, but after 2015 would begin to rise. From a deficit of 1.4 trillion dollars in 2011, the deficit would drop to 841 billion by 2015 and then rise to 1.2 trillion by 2021. The deficit to GDP ratio would fall from 9.5 percent in 2011 to 4.1 percent by 2015 but would then rise to 4.9 percent by 2021. In other words, this is not a viable solution to the United States deficit and debt problem. The United States is the largest and most dynamic economy in the world and has the ability and resources to resolve its deficit problem. However, potential revenue solutions are politically unpalatable. Read about one way they could resolve their deficit in my latest post on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative.
- Apr 21, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: federal election, forestry, highway, infrastructure, northwest ontario
With the advance polls on the weekend and the actual election date rapidly approaching, it is time to ruminate on the federal election and the role of the Northwest. Given the recent visits of federal leaders like so many wise men dispensing gifts, it would appear that more than the usual amount of attention is being paid to the Northwest. Over the course of the last week, both Stephen Harper and Jack Layton have visited Thunder Bay while Michael Ignatieff is due on Monday. It would appear from all this attention that the main parties view these seats as fairly contestable despite the fact that they were won by the NDP with fairly large margins last time around.
The interest on the part of the Conservatives may seem surprising given that both ridings have returned mainly Liberals or NDP for well over a generation. Yet, the Conservatives managed to make a breakthrough in the Kenora riding during the last election and may see the two Thunder Bay ridings as another potential breakthrough. After all, despite the fact they usually vote Liberal or NDP, these ridings are actually quite “conservative” when it comes to issues like gun control, crime and other social policy. At the same time, both the Liberals and the NDP see these ridings as their traditional electoral territory and are also lavishing their attention. More to the point, with a minority government at present and the potential for another minority quite strong, every seat counts and hence the attention.
While it is flattering to get attention, it is also useful to see if the attention amounts to anything substantial in terms of attention to regional issues. One of the things I would like to see addressed by each of the federal parties in the current election is their view on the transportation infrastructure in the region – in particular the fact that the vital “zone of transit” role of this region on the east-west axis is compromised by the poor state of the highway. I would like to see a long-term partnership plan between the federal and provincial governments to upgrade the highway to four-lane status given that the increasing obstacles at the U.S. border make our own east-west link all the more important. Some may argue that in the age of high gas prices and environmental awareness, we should not be investing in more roads but quite frankly I do not see any alternative to road transportation emerging in the near future and new vehicles are becoming more fuel efficient and environmentally friendly all the time. The federal government needs to play a leadership role given the nation-building aspect of a national highway system.
In addition, given that Northern Ontario borders on Hudson and James Bay and the Arctic regions of Canada, what role can we in Northwestern Ontario play with respect to Arctic sovereignty? It may sound far-fetched but Thunder Bay is at the east-west cross-roads of the country, is a link between road, water, air and rail transportation and is a logical staging point for a rapid deployment force that can quickly access the Arctic region as well as move east or west in times of a national emergency. Given the low cost of land and housing in the region, it would be easy to build the military infrastructure as well as be a reasonable place to live for the forces stationed in the region. This is a vision that needs a champion and it would be ideal for the federal parties to consider how Thunder Bay’s role as a security linchpin in Canada’s military and rapid response infrastructure could be built.
Finally, what more can the Federal government do with respect to promoting Canada’s forest products and in particular Northwestern Ontario’s forest industry to new markets around the world? Trees are a renewable resource and given population growth around the world particularly in the Asia-Pacific area, the demand for wood frame housing is a logical choice. Such an initiative could go a long way in helping our ravaged forest sector recover and once again become an important regional wealth generator.
- Apr 21, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: election, thunder bay, twitter
Well, with the advance polls coming up on the Easter weekend, this is probably a good time to revisit the Twitter follower statistics I've been monitoring over the course of this federal election. There has been no change in the relative ranking of candidates across the two Thunder Bay ridings as can be seen from the Table below aside from the fact that in Thunder Bay Rainy River the Green candidate has now surpassed the Liberal candidate in terms of the number of Twitter followers. Bruce Hyer still leads in TBSN though Yves Fricot still has the greater growth rate. John Rafferty still leads in TBRR. How this will translate on election day will be interesting in terms of demonstrating just how useful an indicator twitter is for local election forecasting. Unfortunately, not all of the local candidates are on Twitter. At best, this technique might allow for some insight on who might win locally but little on relative distribution of the final vote. Of more interest are the numbers for the federal leaders whose Twitter numbers also better parallel their party standings in the polls. As well, all three party leaders have shown growth in the number of followers but the growth rates have been greatest for Jack Layton and Elizabeth May. Does this signify a surge? We'll have to wait and see.
30-Mar
|
15-Apr
|
21-Apr
|
%Growth Since April 15
|
||
TBSN
|
Hyer
|
385
|
424
|
431
|
1.7
|
Fricot
|
66
|
154
|
176
|
14.3
|
|
Harvey
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0.0
|
|
Kyle
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0.0
|
|
30-Mar
|
15-Apr
|
21-Apr
|
%Growth Since April 15
|
||
TBRR
|
Rafferty
|
1089
|
1145
|
1166
|
1.8
|
Boshcoff
|
137
|
158
|
166
|
5.1
|
|
Comuzzi-Stehmann
|
0
|
28
|
35
|
25.0
|
|
Shields
|
59
|
144
|
188
|
30.6
|
|
National
|
05-Apr
|
15-Apr
|
21-Apr
|
%Growth Since April 5
|
|
Stephen Harper
|
119471
|
126525
|
128907
|
7.9
|
|
Michael Ignatieff
|
82808
|
90781
|
94040
|
13.6
|
|
Jack Layton
|
73308
|
81122
|
84982
|
15.9
|
|
Elizabeth May
|
17670
|
21658
|
22390
|
26.7
|
|
Gilles Duceppe
|
51402
|
54427
|
55585
|
8.1
|
|
- Apr 20, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: canada, election, health care, kobyashi maru
I've always enjoyed Star Trek and though a fictional universe, it can often deliver insights into our everyday economic and policy lives. No doubt, one day, there will be a self-help manual published called Everything I Needed to Know, I Learned from Star Trek. However, I digress. In a new post on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, I examine the Canadian health policy debate during our current federal election through the tool of Star Trek by relating the infamous Kobyashi Maru test to the health care debate. While we all know how 23rd century James Kirk ultimately beat the test, I'm afraid we are still waiting for an equivalent 21st century Canadian politician. Please visit the post using the above link.
- Apr 18, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: cercle de feu, mining, ring of fire
The Ring of Fire has the potential to be one of the biggest economic drivers in the history of northern Ontario. Radio-Canada will be running a four part series on its nightly Tele-Journal Ontario starting the evening of April 18th at 18:35 dealing with the Ring of Fire/Cercle de Feu. I had the pleasure of being interviewed by the team of Louis Lessard, Thomas Gerbet and Pascal Breniel of Radio Canada as part of the work in preparing the series and some clips from the interview will be aired over the next few nights. You can also catch the story site at Radio-Canada as well as visit the discussion by experts on the impact of the Ring of Fire.
- Apr 16, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: election, thunder bay, twitter
Well, we are about halfway through the election campaign and there has not been a lot of change in the relative rankings of the candidates based on the number of Twitter followers. For Thunder Bay Superior North, Bruce Hyer (NDP) remains in the lead with 423 Twitter followers, up 10 percent from the start on March 30th. Yves Fricot(LIB) is in second place with 158 followers, up 139 percent from March 30th thereby exhibiting the greatest growth. Neither Richard Harvey(C) nor Scott Kyle (GR) yet developed a Twitter presence. Let me know via a comment if they have a Twitter address that I have missed.
30-Mar
|
08-Apr
|
16-Apr
|
||
TBSN
|
Hyer
|
385
|
400
|
423
|
Fricot
|
66
|
127
|
158
|
|
Harvey
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Kyle
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
For Thunder Bay Rainy River, John Rafferty (NDP) remains in the lead with 1,146 followers – an increase of 5 percent since March 30th. Next is Ken Boshcoff (LIB) with 158 followers – up 15 percent. Moe Comuzzi-Stehmann (C) now has a Twitter presence and as of April 16th has 30 followers. Meanwhile, Ed Shields (GR) has 144 followers for an increase of 144 percent since March 30th.
30-Mar
|
08-Apr
|
16-Apr
|
||
TBRR
|
Rafferty
|
1089
|
1113
|
1146
|
Boshcoff
|
137
|
147
|
158
|
|
Comuzzi-Stehmann
|
0
|
0
|
30
|
|
Shields
|
59
|
98
|
144
|
I’ve provided some distributional pie charts to accompany this post.
As well, as an added bonus, I’ve also done the stats and a pie chart for the five federal leaders. Enjoy!
Twitter Followers
16-Apr
|
|
Stephen Harper
|
126884
|
Michael Ignatieff
|
91177
|
Jack Layton
|
81809
|
Elizabeth May
|
21737
|
Gilles Duceppe
|
54650
|
All provincial governments now have drug expenditure programs for low income individuals and seniors. Drug spending has been one of the fastest growing categories of health expenditure in the public health care system and a concern with respect to sustainability. However, there are interesting differences across the provinces and indeed some provinces have been quite successful in restraining the cost of their drug care plans. Read about it in my latest post on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative.
- Apr 14, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: accountability, election, politicians
By: Livio Di Matteo
Originally appeared in the Winnipeg Free Press, April 14th, 2011, A13.
Over the last decade, public-sector workers have been inundated with performance and accountability measures designed to ensure taxpayers get value for their dollar.
There are many accountability procedures, including annual reports, strategic planning and goal-setting exercises, salary disclosure laws, performance reviews and quality-assurance committees and councils.
Yet, the public still seems dissatisfied with their public sector.
Moreover, the anecdotal evidence is mounting that these accountability measures churn up substantial time and resources and in the end represent "paper" rather than real accountability.
One part of the public sector, however, has emerged relatively unscathed by the accountability mantra -- the politicians themselves.
One can speculate the reason politicians are eager to implement public-sector worker accountability measures is to deflect public dissatisfaction away from themselves.
The politicians have been keen to subject public-sector employees to larger amounts of paperwork in the name of accountability, yet oddly enough are relatively immune from a process of objective assessment aside from one -- an election.
An election is seen as the only accountability process when it comes to the performance of politicians, but this process is really a tournament with the politicians themselves setting the goals of the debate via spin and targeted messaging.
It seems increasingly insufficient to assess political performance only once every four years.
One of the more amusing methods of assessing a politician's performance outside of an election is in the English town of High Wycombe, where there is an interesting tradition of weighing the mayor and council at the start and end of their term.
Mayors and councillors who have gained weight during their term spark much mirth about living high on the hog during their term of office and are booed by the gathered crowd.
In days of yore, weighty offenders would also have been pelted with rotten fruits and vegetables.
While weighing our parliamentarians might be an amusing way of monitoring both their performance and their health, it would not necessarily provide the best information about their effectiveness in representing their constituents.
Why are no comprehensive statistics rating municipal councillors, MPPs and MPs readily available?
For example, for members of a city council, it should be easy to compile and publish statistics on how many council meetings they have attended, the number of committees and the number of sub-committees they have sat on, the number of public functions they have represented the city at, or the number of motions they have moved or seconded.
Perhaps each year, city councillors could file their own personal annual report in a standardized format listing their activities and accomplishments, as well as setting out a personal strategic plan for what they hope to accomplish over the course of the next year.
Subsequent reports would then address how many of those goals were achieved and what remains to be done. Similar approaches could be applied to MPs or MPPs.
Just as there are higher education quality-assurance councils for university and college teachers, why not an elected-official monitoring office to provide objective and standardized reports the public could consult during an election campaign?
Just as a parliamentary budget officer can provide objective fiscal assessments, a parliamentary accountability office can provide standardized performance indicators on MPs. Where is a Canadian RateMyPoliticians.ca when you need one?
Of course, politicians will argue such an approach is difficult to implement objectively and fairly, will become a tool for partisan political purposes, that their work is too complex to subject to quantitative assessment and that they are elected officials subject to the ultimate performance review -- an election.
They are elected to govern and, given their ultimate accountability is to the public, they should be immune from what will undoubtedly be an imperfect assessment process. As well, politicians are constantly scrutinized in the media and that can be a very tough process.
The politicians may indeed be right, but in excluding themselves from a more objective assessment, they are setting themselves apart from the public they govern.
Members of the voting public -- whether employed in the public or private sector -- are constantly being assessed and monitored for their job performance and each passing year seems to bring greater scrutiny and rising mounds of process and paperwork.
Why should the politicians be any different?
Livio Di Matteo is professor of economics at Lakehead University.
- Apr 14, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: strategic plan, thunder bay, urban
Spring is in the air and with the renewal of spring comes yet another strategic planning exercise by the City of Thunder Bay designed to guide “the actions of council and administration”. According to the City Manager, “strategic plans are very much about seizing opportunities” with an example being the coming wave of mining development around the Ring of Fire and the need to devise a plan to take advantage of it. Among the objectives that council has laid out as part of the strategic plan are the need to diversify the local economy, increase the quality of life, clean and beautify the city and make it “one of the best run cities in Canada.” At an open public meeting on Wednesday April 13, there was apparently much input from the participants but it was noted that the turnout was very low.
It should be no surprise that the level of engagement in strategic planning on the part of city residents is rather low. Ultimately, the public consultations may generate some new ideas and valuable input but council and administration have already in a sense provided the objectives and framework within which those comments may occur and the role of the consultation is also a process of legitimization. For example, City Council is moving towards building a new multiplex facility and therefore having it in the strategic plan generates visibility for the idea and the public discussions a forum for enthusiastic supporters to come forward. Of course, if there is substantial opposition to a proposal during any consultation it does not mean a proposal is torpedoed – witness the windmill fiasco and its legal fallout.
We have been through a number of these exercises over the years and in the end while they provide a set of general guiding principles and goals for the city, they are for the most part lists of motherhood statements and infrastructure wishes. As for taking advantage of the opportunities in the mining sector to diversify the local economy, well that will happen in spite of whether or not the City of Thunder Bay plans for it. The local private sector will take advantage of economic opportunities generated by the Ring of Fire when there is a profit to be made and not because the City decides to talk about it.
Moreover, the course of events often moves at odds with the aspirations of the plan. For example, “quality of life” is a major mantra of city council but explain that to the residents adjacent to the planned windmill development on the Norwesters who feel that their quality of life is about to be severely compromised. As well, the recent stories of pedestrians being randomly pelted with ice or eggs as they enjoy the natural vistas of Thunder Bay does not augur well for quality of life either nor for the goal of becoming a destination city that attracts major events. Thunder Bay is one of the few places I know where on a summer evening as you go out for a walk, you risk being sworn at by drive-by yahoos (often in a pick-up truck) simply for their personal entertainment.
This is not to say that strategic planning or thinking is without any value – it is useful in trying to shape the urban space and layout of the city particularly with regards to creating a more vibrant urban setting. Thunder Bay, because of its history as two cities, has evolved into a remarkably dispersed and low-density urban area. In November 1990, in the Chronicle-Journal, there appeared a three part series called “City at a Crossroads” which dealt with the city’s economic future as well as what the opportunities and issues were for the future. One of the suggestions in that set of articles was for a policy of core-specialization with the former downtown area of Fort William designated as government-administrative, the former downtown area of Port Arthur designated as a tourist/entertainment area and the intercity area as mainly commercial/retail. The point was that since history had given us two downtown cores, one may as well work with that legacy in terms of development especially when it comes to things the city government can actually influence.
Over the years, subsequent city plans have reflected aspects of this type of thinking and in fits and starts some progress has been made. The Port Arthur core is now the home of Magnus Theatre, the government casino and a major waterfront park development. If a new multiplex/convention center is eventually located near this area’s cluster of restaurants and shops, then a critical mass of activity for an urban experience with a night-life will be created. The Fort William core has a renovated City Hall and adjacent office complexes, a new courthouse complex being built, as well as the new headquarters for the district housing board. This provides a critical mass of government services and activities that will also provide activity for this core.
Locating government and public facilities in the former core areas as part of a concerted long-term effort is one way in which municipal government can make a difference to the quality of urban life in Thunder Bay. Providing additional infrastructure and beautification in these designated areas is another especially when it can build on a coherent theme such as tourism and entertainment as in the Port Arthur core or administrative services in the Fort William core. Its always nice when with resources and a little luck in timing, planning exercises are eventually followed through to generate some concrete results. That is the ultimate benefit of a plan - having a long-term public goal in view that allows you to seize opportunities when they emerge - much as the City Manager remarked, but specifically with respect to municipal government investment and service provision.
- Apr 12, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: canada, debt, deficit, united states
The global financial crisis and recession has taken its toll and nowhere more so than the United States where sluggish employment growth and rising deficits are hampering the recovery of the American economy. Of particular concern is the rise in the levels of U.S. federal public debt which ended off 2010 at about 13.6 trillion dollars. This rising burden of debt has attracted the attention of the IMF and should be of concern to all Canadians. Visit my post at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative discussing the U.S. debt burden and comparing it to Canada.
- Apr 12, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: housing, prices, real estate, thunder bay
Concerns have recently been expressed in Thunder Bay City Council that Thunder Bay is experiencing a shortage of affordable housing and that this is affecting our ability to compete and attract business opportunities. Indeed, over the last decade, the number of listings in the Thunder Bay real estate market has dropped and as a result housing prices in Thunder Bay have risen substantially despite the economic impact of the forest sector crisis and the recession. Is housing in Thunder Bay now dangerously over valued?
Using data for the period 2000-2009 obtained from the 2010 Canadian Housing Observer, Figure 1 plots average residential prices for Ontario as a whole, Sudbury and Thunder Bay. While average housing prices in Thunder Bay have grown from 109,811 dollars in 2000 to 138,090 dollars in 2009. They remain far below those for Sudbury and indeed Ontario as a whole. Over the same period, average prices in Ontario rose from 183,841 dollars to 318,366 dollars, while prices in Sudbury rose from 109,262 to 200,947 dollars.
Figure 1
One can construct an estimate of a price-earning ratio for housing by taking the ratio of the price of housing to an estimate of the income that could theoretically be earned from it. This is done in Figure 2 by taking the ratio of the average residential price to the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment. In stock markets, price-earnings ratios substantially above 15 are generally taken as evidence that a market is beginning to be overvalued. Despite the price increase, Thunder Bay’s housing price-earning ratio has remained at about 15 over the last decade. On the other hand, the ratio for Sudbury and Ontario has soared. Ontario’s has grown from 18.5 to 27.8 while Sudbury’s has grown from 14.7 to 20.2. Thunder Bay’s has grown from 14.0 to 15.5 suggesting that nothing much has changed. Remarkably, the turmoil in local and regional labour markets seems to have done little to affect the fundamentals of the local housing market. Prices have gone up but so have rents meaning that the price-earning ratio has stayed stable.
Figure 2
- Apr 8, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: election, thunder bay, twitter
Well, a week has gone by since my last update on the number of Twitter followers for the candidates in the two Thunder Bay area riding. There has even been some local media coverage of my Thunder Bay Twitter Election numbers on Magic 99.9. The two incumbents still lead strongly in the overall number of Twitter followers but the growth has been mainly in the following of their opponents. In Thunder Bay-Superior North, Yves Fricot has seen the number of followers grow 92 percent since March 30th. In Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Ed Shields has seen his followers grow about 66 percent. To the best of my knowledge, neither Conservative candidate has set up their own Twitter account and neither has the Green candidate in TBSN. Will update again in about a week to see if there are any shifts.
Twitter Followers
|
|||||
TBSN
|
30-Mar
|
02-Apr
|
05-Apr
|
08-Apr
|
% Growth
|
Hyer
|
385
|
396
|
397
|
400
|
3.9
|
Fricot
|
66
|
101
|
114
|
127
|
92.4
|
Harvey
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0.0
|
Kyle
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0.0
|
TBRR
|
30-Mar
|
02-Apr
|
05-Apr
|
08-Apr
|
% Growth
|
Rafferty
|
1089
|
1099
|
1106
|
1113
|
2.2
|
Boshcoff
|
137
|
138
|
144
|
147
|
7.3
|
Comuzzi-Stehmann
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0.0
|
Shields
|
59
|
69
|
87
|
98
|
66.1
|
- Apr 5, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: minority government, northern ontario, ontario, provincial election
In light of a federal election that may yet provide us with another minority government, it is useful to contemplate whether a minority government at Queen’s Park might not be a useful development for Northern Ontario. While majorities provide stable government, they also provide an environment where it can sometimes be difficult to get your point of view across especially if your region is marginal in terms of its share of population and electoral seats.
Consider the last decade in Northwestern Ontario under a provincial Liberal majority government. Despite persistent lobbying by Northerners for something to be done about the forest sector crisis, the provincial government (even with cabinet representation from the North) took a long time to recognize the problem and by the time it offered some relief, much of the sector had shut down. Then there was the Far North Act, which sequestered large sections of the North from economic development with very little debate. Then there has been the reluctance of the provincial government to do anything about regional energy prices or bring about tax incentive zones. One not need even begin getting into the province's controversial green energy policies. Most recently, has been the decision of the provincial government to not hold hearings in the North for Bill 151, which will deal with forest tenure reform and instead hold them only in Toronto.
A majority government is in many respects an elected dictatorship and once Rome has spoken, the case is closed. A minority government, because of its inherent fragility, is much more open to debate and compromise. The parties need to work together and that forces a degree of consultation and accommodation that takes multiple points of view into account. There have been minorities in Ontario in the past including a period of Conservative ones from 1975 to 1981 and of course the minority of the 1985-87 period. From 1985 to 1987, there was a minority government under a Liberal-NDP accord with David Peterson that ultimately generated a large number of positive programs for Northern Ontario.
Indeed, the period 1985-1987 saw a program of broad accomplishment in the North that really has not been equaled since and it was mainly due to the minority government situation, which made even small marginal regions more electorally important. And what was the result for Northern Ontario? The Northern Ontario Heritage Fund was formally established in the summer of 1988. The Northern Ontario Health Travel Grants was established in 1985. And, in July of 1986, a program for moving government jobs was announced and over the next year 1200 jobs moved north including the registrar general to Thunder Bay, Ontario Lottery Corporation to the Sault and Correctional Services to North Bay. You can debate how successful any of these programs ultimately were but they were attempts at solutions.
Minority governments are not perfect but they do create an environment where there is more debate and trade when it comes to important issues. A minority government in October’s provincial election is something that could happen but it might not be a bad development for Northern Ontario.
- Apr 5, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: canada, economy, election, growth, prime ministers
Well it is another federal election and so I thought it would be interesting to revisit that old adage "Tory times Are Tough Times" by looking at some data on real per capita income growth and prime ministerial terms to see if the terms of Conservative prime ministers generally had lower per capita income growth than Liberal prime ministers. See the post at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative.
- Apr 2, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: northern economist, visits
I've been blogging on Northern Economist for about four months now and what is interesting when you check the statistics is the geographic range of the countries the hits originate from. Most of my visitors are from Canada and in particular Ontario but there are a large number of western Canadian hits. As well, there are visitors from other parts of the world. Over the months, there have been visitors from Russia, Denmark, the UK, Germany and New Zealand. I've included a screen shot which shows visits over the last few weeks and they show first time visitors from The Philippines, Mexico and Nigeria. Thank you to all visitors to this blog site.
- Apr 2, 2011 Posted By: Livio Di Matteo Tags: election, thunder bay, twitter
Well, after my March 30th post, I decided to do a quick update (April 2 at about 9:30am) to see if there was any major change in the number of Twitter followers for the two Thunder Bay ridings after a couple of days. The results are interesting as the Table below shows. All of the candidates who had Twitter accounts have seen an increase though the largest percentage increases since go to Yves Fricot - who saw a 53 percent increase - and Ed Shields - who saw almost a 17 percent increase. Of course, their totals are still well below the incumbents. As well, there still appears to be no movement on the Twitter front for the two Conservative candidates as well as the Green candidate in Thunder Bay Superior North. Will check again in a few days and provide another update.
Twitter Followers
|
|||
30-Mar
|
02-Apr
|
Percent Change
|
|
Hyer
|
385
|
396
|
2.9
|
Fricot
|
66
|
101
|
53.0
|
Harvey
|
0
|
0
|
|
Kyle
|
0
|
0
|
|
Rafferty
|
1089
|
1099
|
0.9
|
Boshcoff
|
137
|
138
|
0.7
|
Comuzzi-Stehmann
|
0
|
0
|
|
Shields
|
59
|
69
|
16.9
|
